The NFL’s Most Valuable Player.
Valuable.
That word drives everyone bonkers when debating who should win the annual best-in-show award because everyone has a different opinion of what value is.
Is it wins? Is it stats? Production in comparison to others at his position? Does a player’s contract come into play?
OK, I may be reaching a bit with that last one, but to talk about value in a salary-capped sport, shouldn’t production-to-contract ratio come into play?
These are the questions that need answers, and you are about to undertake a serious adventure into answering them and finding the real MVP.
This year, the general consensus for MVP is down to two people: Aaron Rodgers or J.J. Watt. But depending on your definition of value, DeMarco Murray, Russell Wilson, Bobby Wagner, and even Gronk should also be included.
THE CASE FOR THE DARK HORSES
If you consider value to be strictly production-to-contract ratio, then Russell Wilson is your MVP for 2014 (and 2013), because the bruh didn’t even make $1 million for the entire season.
If you consider value to be that of wins with a blend of production-to-contract ratio, then Bobby Wagner is your boy, cause once he came back, the Seahawks D went back to being the Seahawks D. I don’t know why that happened (apparently he’s really good), but it happened. He also only gets $1.2 million this season.
If you consider it to be stats, wins, and production in relation to others playing the same position, then Rob Gronkowski is your man. He’s head-and-shoulders better than every other TE, and much like Wagner, when the chains were taken off Gronk/when he wasn’t injured anymore and he was allowed to…… to……well, to put it eloquently, to Gronk, the Pats went back to being the Pats.
And DeMarco Murray well, let’s just say the dude got handed the rock so many times he made the Cowboys relevant again and managed to trick people into thinking Romo was an MVP candidate. And he did a decent minority of it with a broken hand.
Just things to consider. Anyway, let us get back to the matter at hand and the real race in the minds of the media: J.J. vs. A.A.
Let’s break down the two candidates in regard to the two most important qualifiers: wins and stats
WINS – WHO GOT THE MOST?
This is, of course, an extremely subjective measurement. Football isn’t baseball in the sense that Wins Above Replacement doesn’t exist in football.
Nonetheless, let’s attempt to categorize the games the candidate’s team would not have won if said candidate wasn’t on the team.
Oh, and for purposes of WHY the candidate EARNED a win that the team wouldn’t have gotten if said player wasn’t on the team, let’s just say it’s because he was injured instead of opening a whole can of worms regarding if he wasn’t under contract with them so they had other money to spend on a different player and blah blah blah.
Aaron Rodgers
Games won – NYJ, Miami, NE, Detroit
God almighty that’s a lot. Four games?! That’s an entire month. A quarter of the season. Hell of a lot of value there. He had to come back to beat the Jets (down 21-3 at one point in the second quarter), beat the Dolphins with last-second trickery (which is kind of his MO against the Dolphins), and I don’t think there’s any questioning GB would not have beat the Pats or Lions without him, so at least four solid wins from Rodgers.
J.J. Watt
Games won – ½ Oakland, Buffalo, Jax (week 17)
It’s obviously much harder to say a DL “won” a game, but it’s pretty easy in this case. Buffalo lost to Houston by six, and J.J. had an 80-yard interception return for a TD in that game. His points were literally the difference maker. Also, the Texans beat Jacksonville in week 17 to keep their playoff hopes alive, thanks largely to Watt’s 3-sack performance that also included a safety in the fourth quarter.
Now, for Oakland…….this is such a funny case. Here’s J.J.’s stat line from the Oakland game:
0 sacks, 0 passes defended, 0 tackles, 1 QB hurry
Zero tackles! Why does J.J. deserve a ½ win for this? Because his lone stat, the one QB hurry, caused an interception, which is just what he does. And the reason he doesn’t have other stats is because the Raiders did what J.J. commands offenses to do. From the Press Democrat:
Against the Raiders, Watt didn’t have a single tackle. His only defensive stat was one quarterback hit — albeit a big one, as it forced Oakland’s Derek Carr into throwing an interception.
“Well, that was a big portion of our game plan from an offensive standpoint,” Raiders coach Dennis Allen said of containing Watt. “We watched the first game of the season and he wrecked the game for (Washington), so we knew we wanted to try to make sure we knew where he was on every play and try to make sure we had the right people in position to get him blocked. I thought for the most part we were able to do that.”
A “big portion” of their offensive game plan was knowing where Watt was and blocking him so much they didn’t let him get anything in the stat book. J.J. Watt literally made this offense play defense.
Oh and he also happened to catch his first TD pass since high school.
WINS VERDICT:
Aaron (4) OVER J.J. (2.5)
When it comes to wins, being a quarterback is king.
STATS – WHO’S GOT THE BEST?
Ahh…stats. Facts, definitive numbers, a simple yes/no, good/bad, right/wrong. Such a wonderful security blanket to fall back on in this oft subjective debate.
Let’s dig in, shall we?
Aaron’s stats in 2014:
TD passes – 3rd w/ 38 (Luck 40, Manning 39, Romo 34)
INTs (minimum 300 pass attempts) – 1st w/ 5 (Smith 6, Wilson 7, Roethlisberger Brady Romo 9)
Yards – 7th w/ 4381 (Roethlisberger & Brees 4952, Luck 4761, Manning 4727, Romo 3705)
Completion % — 9th w/ 65.6 (Romo 69.9, Brees 69.2, Roethlisberger 67.1)
Yards per attempt – 2nd w/ 8.4 (Romo 8.5, Roethlisberger 8.1, Manning 7.9)
Yards per completion – 3rd w/ 12.8 (Hoyer 13.7, Stanton 13.0, Luck 12.5) Edit: WHAT?!?!
Quarterback rating – 2nd w/ 112.2 (Romo 113.2, Roethlisberger 103.3)
ESPN QBR – 2nd w/ 82.64 (Romo 82.75, Manning 77.25)
TD:INT Ratio – 1st with 7.6 (Romo 3.78, Brady 3.67)
The obvious thing that jumps out here is his TD:INT ratio. It’s 2x greater than any other quarterback and is exactly the reason why he is this year’s MVP candidate from the QB pool.
One thing to know when looking at Aaron’s stats is that they could have been much, much better. He was pulled early in 4 games this season because he and the Packers were absolutely destroying their opponent – Minnesota, Carolina, Chicago (week 10), and Philly.
J.J.’s stats in 2014:
Sacks – 2nd w/ 20.5 (Houston 22, Dumervil 17)
Yards lost on sacks – 1st w/ 140 (Dumervil w/ 128, Barwin 104, Houston 99…closest DE is Pierre-Paul at 88, Mario Williams 74, Quinn 73)
Tackles for loss – 1st w/ 29 (23 for Justin Houston, 23 for Suh, 19 for Mario Williams)
Stuffs – 1st w/ 14 (Mack 12, Bennett 11, Suh 10, Donald 10)
Stuff yards – 2nd w/ 34 with 34 (Donald 37, Bennet 27)
Passes defended (limited to defensive linemen) – 2nd w/ 10 (Peppers 11, Ngata 8)
Forced Fumbles – Tied for 3nd w/ 4 forced fumbles (3 players w/ 5 including Quinn, Houston 4, Pierre-Paul 3 Peppers 3, Trent Cole 3)
Fumble Recoveries – 1st w/ 5 (D’Quell Jackson 4, Peppers and others w/ 3)
Snap percentage – 4th w/ 93.0% (Ninkovich 93.8, C. Jordan 93.2, JPP 91.1, Everson Griffen 89.4, Poe 89)
Hurries – 1st w/ 30 (Galette 28, Houston 23, Von Miller 21)
If you take out snap percentage, he’s in the top 3 for every major stat, and is still 4th in snap percentage. He also has a comfortable lead on tackles for loss.
What’s most interesting here is that Houston has 1.5 more sacks than Watt, but yet he has 41 less yards lost on those sacks. 41! This is because Houston gets sacks by running around the outside of the offensive tackle and sacking the quarterback while he’s still in the pocket, besting the tackle with his speed, while Watt gets sacks just about any way he can.
Oh, and he also caught three touchdowns on three different kinds of routes.
STATS VERDICT:
J.J. OVER AARON
The only thing keeping Aaron alive is his TD:INT ratio. He doesn’t have the best QBR, the most TDs, is very low on yards, and is also very low on completion percentage. J.J. is low in the categories of………..nothing.
INTERMISSION
WHEW that’s a lot of knowledge. Numbers can be numbing, you know. Let’s take a breather and recap. If you’re a wins guy, your MVP is Aaron. If you’re a stats guy, J.J. is your guy.
What else is there?
Things that aren’t wins or stats but should be considered.
Do you know what these two candidates have in common? A huge chunk of their stats came against really, really awful teams in their own division.
Let’s take a look at the games in which they absolutely dominated and put up stupid-high numbers:
MONSTER games –
Rodgers – Chi x2, Carolina, Minn, ½ Detroit
Watt – Indy x2, Jacksonville x2, Tenn, Buffalo,
Chicago alone accounted for 10 of Aaron’s TDs and 0 of his INTs. Carolina, Minnesota, and Detroit accounted for 8 TDs and 0 INTs.
J.J. had 6 Sacks against Jacksonville and 4 against Tennessee for a total of 10. Of his total tackles for loss, 8 came against Jacksonville. His TDs even came against Oakland, Tennessee (and that beautiful fade in Cleveland). 8 TFL against jax.
SO, the lesson here is that if you want to win MVP, play in a really, really awful division.
FINAL VERDICT
As previously mentioned, we have a tie – Aaron has the wins, while J.J. has the stats. 1-1. Dead heat.
So, who wins?
Easy.
The winner is the one I wouldn’t trade 1:1 for anybody, the one who’s ability and effect on the game you can’t decrease, a chimera of a man who is three of the games best players rolled into one body, the one who plays four different positions, the one who got triple teamed on multiple occasions by the 2nd best team in the AFC because they’re so acutely aware of his impact, the one who’s team led the league in takeaways on defense, and the one who’s team went 9-7 despite 12 starts from Ryan Fitzpatrick, 2 from Ryan Mallet, and 2 from Case Keenum.
Ladies and gentlemen, your rightful MVP
WHY WATT WINS THE TIEBREAKER
If I was a general manager, and age and money wasn’t a factor (only skill), I would strongly consider trading Aaron straight up for Andrew Luck and possibly even Peyton Manning.
You couldn’t pay me enough to even consider trading J.J. straight up.
He essentially plays DT, DE, and OLB, and he is all the best parts of those positions. He’s literally a Chimera. He’s got the run-stuffing and bullish pass rush ability of Suh, The ball-hawking of Peppers, and the speed-rushing skills of Houston/Dumervil. OH, and he caught three TD passes at tight end. Three men, four positions.
Aaron plays one position – quarterback.
You cannot decrease Watt’s effectiveness, you can only account for it. He’s a wrecking ball who commands attention and a plan to stop him.
You can decrease Rodgers’ effectiveness by having the cornerbacks to play tight man coverage all game (Ex: Bills) or by collapsing the pocket around him (Ex: Seattle).
He is your MVP, despite what the AP will announce this Saturday night.
J.J., stand up and take a bow.
LOOKING AHEAD TO 2015
Let’s hope the AP gets this right and votes our boy J.J. If not, I want you to consider something.
We covered above that if you want to win MVP, you want to play bad awful and shitty no-good teams. Looking at the 2015 schedule, it looks like the MVP candidate will come from either the NFC or AFC South because they play each other, and they’re the worst divisions in football. The AFC South also plays the AFC East (Bills and Jets), and the NFC South plays the NFC East (‘Skins, Giants).
If Aaron wins the MVP this year, proving there is indeed a severe quarterback bias, then you listen to me and you listen good. You bet HEAVY on Andrew Luck to win MVP in 2015.
Enjoy the Super Bowl, everyone.
The Phree Press 